In the first leg of their Europa League last-16 match, Real Sociedad will try to defeat Manchester United at home for the first time ever on Thursday at the Reale Arena. Use our Real Sociedad vs. Manchester United prediction and preview to get a head start on the match.
Real Sociedad vs. Manchester United: The Crucial Findings
- According to the Opta supercomputer, Real Sociedad is 43.8% favourite to win, while Manchester United is predicted to win 29.4% of the time.
- In their last six competitive meetings with Real Sociedad, Manchester United has won three and lost just one.
- For the first time since 1988–89, the Spanish team hopes to advance to the quarterfinals of a major European competition.
For their match against Manchester United, Real Sociedad must have had the worst preparation possible.
Their last match was against Barcelona on Sunday, where they lost 4-0, had only 23.6% possession, had no shots, and centre-back Aritz Elustondo was sent off after just 17 minutes.
Last weekend wasn’t much more enjoyable for United. After a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford, Fulham defeated them 4-3 on penalties to eliminate them from the FA Cup in front of their own supporters.
Since United has excelled in the UEFA Europa League this season, Ruben Amorim will be happy to be back in action. With five victories and three draws from their eight games, they finished third in the league phase and were the only team without a loss.
In comparison, Sociedad suffered three losses, including a 2-1 home loss to Anderlecht. After defeating Midtjylland in both legs to win 7-3 overall, the La Liga team had to negotiate the play-off round.
Imanol Alguacil’s team will accomplish something the club hasn’t accomplished in 36 years if they advance to the quarterfinals, where FCSB or Lyon will be waiting. Since they eliminated German team FC Köln from the UEFA Cup in 1988–89, Real Sociedad has not advanced from any of their previous four last 16 matches in major European competition.
They won’t have many players when they host United. Luka Sucic, Arsen Zakharyan, Jon Pacheco, and Álvaro Odriozola did not attend the Barcelona game.
Given that nine of Amorim’s team are currently in their treatment room, United is in a far worse position with regard to injuries. Those who will be missed in Spain include Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martínez, and Amad Diallo.
At least history favors the visiting team. Real Sociedad has only triumphed once in their last six European meetings with Manchester United (D2 L3), and their lone goal against them came from a penalty kick by Brais Méndez at Old Trafford in September 2022.
The only other time Sociedad faced English opposition in a competitive setting was when they played Liverpool in 1975. Real Sociedad has never defeated an English team at home after Bob Paisley’s squad defeated them 3-1 in Spain.
The fact that United has generally done well in their nation does not bode well for them either. Admittedly, they suffered a 3-0 loss in the second leg of the 2022–2023 Europa League quarterfinal at Sevilla on their most recent visit. But before that match, United had won all seven of their trips to Spain.
Additionally, they have dominated games in this competition to a degree that they could only hope to achieve in the Premier League in 2024–2025.
In the Europa League, Manchester United is averaging 18.8 shots per game this season, which is the highest of any team still playing and their best ratio in a European season since 2003–04. That’s 5.7 more than their average score in a league game this season.
In this competition, United also leads in possession (61.2%), passes per sequence (4.5), and average sequence time (12.9 seconds). The visitors may control the ball given Sociedad’s latter 52.5% percentage.
Amorim has faced Sociedad before, but only in a friendly setting. When they faced off in the summer of 2023, his Sporting CP team prevailed 3-0. It’s questionable if that matters in this case, but the United manager has defeated Alguacil at least once.
Man Utd vs. Real Sociedad head-to-head
All of Real Sociedad’s and Manchester United’s head-to-head matches have taken place in the last 12 years. In general, there haven’t been many goals on the ground.
2021 saw Spain make an exception. Bruno Fernandes scored two goals, and Marcus Rashford and Dan James each scored one to help United, under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, win 4-0.
Two goalless draws were included in the set, and none of the other five meetings featured more than one goal. Nonetheless, both teams are part of the six that have scored in every Europa League game this year.
In 2022, Sociedad’s only triumph came at Old Trafford during the competition’s group stage. Alejandro Garnacho scored the winning goal in the most recent meeting between these teams, which saw United win the rematch 1-0.
Prediction for Real Sociedad vs. Manchester United
According to the Opta supercomputer, Real Sociedad is the most likely winner at the Reale Arena on Thursday, even though United had a far better time in the competition’s group stage.
Next week, the home team has a 43.8% chance of leading Manchester. The visitors’ chances of winning are rated at 29.4%, and 26.8% of the simulations end in a draw.
Sociedad, who has struggled away from home in 2024–25, losing five of their last six away games, will be eager to gain an early advantage on the scoreboard in the second leg.
Rankings of Opta Power
An international team ranking system is the Opta Power Rankings. They give more than 13,000 domestic football teams an ability score. This score ranges from zero to one hundred, with 100 representing the world’s top team and zero representing the lowest-ranked team.